On the heels of reports that Miami (Fla.) cut a deal for five-star offensive tackle Jackson Cantwell for millions per season in NIL money, JC Shurburtt and Mike Morgan discuss if that’s smart from a football standpoint on a recent episode of the JC and Morgan College Football Podcast.
In the world of college football, the debate over paying exorbitant amounts for high school recruits has reached new heights. The latest topic of discussion: Is it worth paying a guaranteed $7 million for an offensive tackle straight out of high school?
Let’s play GM and Capologist for a moment. The resounding answer from our hosts is a firm “No.” Here’s why:
First, let’s consider the financial implications. For an average SEC-level program, the typical payroll is around $15 million per year. Allocating $7 million to a single player would eat up roughly 20% of the entire budget. That’s an astronomical amount for one position, let alone for an unproven high school athlete.
But it’s not just about the money. The development of offensive linemen is notoriously unpredictable. As one host points out, “It’s a crapshoot.” You might see five tackles taken in the first two rounds of the NFL draft, with three being five-star recruits and two coming out of nowhere. The position relies heavily on physical development, which isn’t always guaranteed.
Take the example of Mitch Hyatt, a five-star recruit who started at Clemson for four years but went undrafted. Despite his high school accolades, he couldn’t put on the necessary weight to compete at the highest level. This unpredictability makes such a significant investment incredibly risky.
So, if not offensive linemen, which positions might command such hefty price tags? The hosts agree on two:
Quarterback – The obvious choice, given the position’s impact on the game. Defensive End – A “Hellraiser” type who can wreck backfields and change the complexion of games. Think Jadeveon Clowney or Myles Garrett.There’s also a slight consideration for exceptional wide receivers. Names like AJ Green and Julio Jones from back in the day might make a coach “think about it,” as one host humorously puts it, referencing Steve Winwood’s “Higher Love.”
But for an offensive lineman? It’s a hard pass. The risk is too high, the development too unpredictable, and the impact on the overall team budget too significant. While offensive line play is crucial to a team’s success, the consensus is clear: paying millions for an unproven high school tackle is not a smart investment.
As college football continues to grapple with the implications of NIL deals and the changing landscape of recruiting, these discussions will only become more prevalent. The challenge for programs will be balancing the desire to land top recruits with the need for financial prudence and long-term team building. In this case, at least, the verdict seems clear – never pay an offensive lineman millions out of high school.
